Problems With the Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model.

With high quality data and appropriate statistical methods, prognostic models can hold enormous potential for identifying individuals at increased risk developing a health condition. Unfortunately, the recent study described by He et al (1) not only fails to omit key important information as suggested the TRIPOD Initiative (2) (www.tripodstatement.org), but has numerous methodological problemswhich deserve highlighting so that future investigators do not fall into the same trap.